2023年9月29日，黄溪连大使在菲律宾主流媒体《菲律宾星报》发表署名文章《中国经济持续向好将给地区国家带来重大利好和机遇》，全文如下：

近段时间以来，一些西方媒体屡屡炒作中国经济“产能过剩论”“债务危机论”“经济失速论”，执着于渲染中国经济的各种利空，甚至抛出“中国经济放缓波及亚洲邻国”论调，引发不少关注。事实上，此类论调过去几十年来多次出现，破绽百出、了无新意，一再被事实打脸，每次此类论调均以破产告终。前段时间我回国述职期间，走访了多个省市，亲身体验了各地熙来攘往、加快复苏的旺盛活力。我愿借此机会与菲律宾朋友分享关于当前中国经济形势的最新了解和直观感受。

一是宏观经济发展势头良好。在世界经济波动下行、外部环境更趋严峻复杂背景下，中国经济承压回升、持续复苏，上半年GDP同比增长5.5%，明显快于去年全年3%的经济增速，远高于美国的1.7%、欧盟的1.1%和日本的-0.4%。日前，世界银行、经合组织和国际货币基金组织分别预测2023年中国经济将增长5.6%、5.4%和5.2%，对世界经济增长贡献率将达三分之一。2022年中国GDP规模达18万亿美元，5.5%的增长意味着近万亿美元增量，相当于菲律宾经济总量的2倍以上。中国仍然是世界经济增长的主要动力。

二是高质量发展彰显强大韧性。我回国期间，大部分消费都在网上进行，并享受了家里购买的第一辆宽敞舒适的新能源汽车。上半年，中国新产业成长壮大，新业态持续活跃。随着直播带货等新型商业模式兴起，全国网上零售额达7.16万亿元人民币，同比增长13.1%。新能源汽车出口79.5万辆，同比增长112.7%，中国跃升为全球最大汽车出口国。在美国及其盟友的全方位制裁、禁售和打压之下，华为公司时隔三年正式发布新款手机Mate60，实现1万多个零部件国产化，自主创新取得显著进展。

三是高水平对外开放稳步推进。上半年，中国外贸蓬勃开展，货物进出口规模突破20万亿元人民币，同比增长2.1%，对“一带一路”沿线国家进出口增长9.8%。上半年，法、英、日、德对华投资分别增长173.3%、135.3%、53%和14.2%。上海美国商会上周发布报告显示，52%的受访美国企业预计2023年收入将高于2022年，同时31%的企业计划今年增加对华投资，比去年增加6个百分点。9月中旬，星巴克公司在江苏昆山落成投产总投资额约2.2亿美元的咖啡创新产业园，并在中国以平均9小时开一家新店的速度迅猛扩张，其全球首席执行官纳思瀚强调“中国是机遇无限的市场”。在全球经济总体低迷的情况下，跨国企业“用脚投票”，加大布局中国，充分表明中国市场不是“可选项”而是“必选项”。当我离开厦门机场返回马尼拉时，我看到机场里人流熙熙攘攘，对中外人员交流的迅速恢复深感欣慰。

四是民生消费市场持续恢复向好。随着线下消费有序恢复，上半年消费对中国经济增长的贡献率达到77.2%。暑期国内旅游人数达18.39亿人次，实现收入1.21万亿元人民币，旅游热度显著高于2019年同期。电影暑期档票房首次突破200亿元人民币，观影人次5.05亿。我到常熟度假时，酒店里住满了人，景区里游客如织。9月23日，第十九届亚洲运动会在浙江省杭州市隆重开幕，吸引了整个亚洲乃至全世界的关注，掀起体育和旅游消费新浪潮。本周末，中国将迎来中秋节、国庆节8天长假，国内热门城市酒店预订量较2019年同期增长5倍，出境游订单较2022年同期增长近20倍。

上述事实充分证明，中国经济韧性强、潜力大、活力足，长期向好的基本面没有变，中国有信心、有能力应对各种风险挑战，继续推动经济健康发展。中国是一个拥有14亿多人口、人均GDP超1.2万美元、中等收入群体规模超4亿人的经济大国，拥有庞大的产业需求和旺盛的消费需求。过去10年，中国对世界经济增长的年平均贡献率超过30%，一直是推动世界经济增长的最大引擎。中国经济持续向好，将有力带动全球经济疫后复苏，并首先惠及包括菲律宾在内的周边邻国。

China's Development,

Still Tremendous Opportunity for the Region

It is not news to read some western media repeatedly hyping up "overcapacity", "debt crisis" or "struggling for momentum" of the Chinese economy. But recently, some coverage and articles got so obsessed with "shorting" China that they went as far as proclaiming "a slowing Chinese economy impacting the rest of Asia". Theories predicting the collapse of the Chinese economy have kept occurring every now and then, only to be proven baseless, self-defeating and bankrupt.

I returned earlier this month to China for work report where I visited a number of places. What I saw is an ostensibly recovering economy with bustling streets and crowds out there to spend. Be reminded, that was not yet the typical holiday season in China. Let me share some of my perspectives on the current economic situation in my country.

The macro-economy is gaining momentum. Amid the struggling world economy and a challenging and complex external environment in the beginning of this year, the Chinese economy kicked start with a robust recovery. In the first half of this year, China's GDP grew by 5.5% year-on-year, notably faster than last year's 3%, outpacing the American 1.7%, the European 1.1% and the Japanese -0.4%. The World Bank, the OECD and the IMF have respectively projected China's economy to grow at 5.6%, 5.4% and 5.2% for 2023, contributing one third of the global growth. China's GDP was 18 trillion USD in 2022, which means a 5.5% growth is a net increase of nearly 1 trillion USD, more than twice the size of the Philippine GDP. The Chinese economy will remain an important engine for the global economy.

The development is high-standard, and showing great resilience. In China, a considerable part of the commodity retailing is done online. And I was welcomed by my family with the electric vehicle recently bought. We are seeing in the first half of the year, new industries and new forms of business generating growth in China. Live commerce is transforming online retail, the sales of which reached 7.16 trillion RMB, roughly 1 trillion USD, an increase of 13.1% over the same period last year. The export of new energy vehicles amounted to 795,000 units, up by 112.7% year-on-year, letting China to stand as the world's largest automobile exporter. Despite the all-round sanctions, bans and suppression by the US and its allies, Huawei released its new model of cellphone Mate 60 in September. With over 10,000 localized components, the gadget marks a remarkable progress in independent innovation.

High-level opening-up is steadily advancing. In the first half of the year, China's foreign trade flourished, with external trade in goods exceeding a record 20 trillion RMB, up by 2.1%. Trade in goods with countries along the Belt and Road jumped 9.8 % year-on-year. France, Britain, Japan and Germany boosted investment in China in the first half of 2023 by 173.3%, 135.3%, 53% and 14.2% respectively. Last week, the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai released its 2023 China Business Report, showing 52% of respondent American companies expect greater revenue in 2023 than the previous year, while 31% of respondents are increasing investment in China or 6 percentage points more than last year. In mid-September, Starbucks inaugurated a new coffee innovation park in China's Jiangsu Province with an investment value of about 220 million USD. Its chain expands rapidly in China by opening one new store nearly every nine hours. "China presents tremendous opportunities for Starbucks," said Laxman Narasimhan, CEO of the coffee company. While cross-border investment is lackluster in other parts of the world, international investors have again chosen China the market of which is not optional, but a must for global businesses.

The consumer market has continued to expand. With the rebound in offline businesses, total consumption in the first half of 2023 contributed 77.2 % of the growth. Domestic tourism this summer reached 1.84 billion person times, generating a revenue of 1.21 trillion RMB, surpassing that of 2019. Some 505 million Chinese went to the cinema, marking a new box office record of over 20 billion RMB. When I was in the medium-sized city of Changshu, Jiangsu Province for holiday, the hotel was fully booked and tourist spots packed. On September 23, the opening ceremony of the 19th Asian Games was held in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, setting off a new wave of sports and tourism consumption. This weekend, China will embrace the eight-day holiday of the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day, with hotel bookings in popular cities up by five times from the same period in 2019 and orders for outbound travel up by nearly 20 times from that in 2022.

The above facts showcase the resilience, potential, vitality and the fundamentals sustaining China's economic growth in the long run. We are confident and capable of promoting the sustained and sound development of the economy despite all risks and challenges. China is an economy with a population of more than 1.4 billion, a per capita GDP of over 12,000 USD, and a 400 million strong middle-income community. Our economy is underpinned by strong and robust industrial and consumer demand. China has been the source of more than 30% of global growth over the past decade, serving as a major locomotive for the world economy. A sustained uptick in China's economy will give a strong impetus to the global recovery from the pandemic and naturally will first benefit the Asian neighbors, the Philippines included.



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